US production could fall if oil prices remain at current levels

US unconventional oil production could decline as early as this autumn if oil prices remain at current levels. Current prices (USD 62/bbl for the US WTI index) are below the break-even point for US oil producers, estimated by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas at USD 65/bbl. By keeping prices around USD 60/bbl, OPEC and Russia could lead to a significant decline in investment in the United States, Canada and Brazil and consolidation in the industry if prices remain at this level for several years. The International Energy Agency forecasts that prices will continue to fall this year amid sluggish demand and increased production by OPEC+ countries.