ANALYSE GAZ EN

22/05/2026 - The TTF Calendar 2027 contract closed yesterday evening at 37.53 EUR/MWh, up 2.17% compared to last Thursday. The TTF Calendar 2028 contract also closed higher at 27.78 EUR/MWh.
The shutdown of Qatari LNG production reduces global LNG supply by approximately 20%. Storage levels in Europe have reached 37%, compared to 30% on February 28 and 45% at the same time last year.
Analysts remain divided on the time required for LNG production to resume once the Strait of Hormuz reopens.
The war in Iran will delay the emergence of oversupply in the gas market by two years (2029–2030 instead of 2027–2028 before the start of the conflict).

The oil price closed yesterday at 102.58 USD/bbl, down 2.97% compared to last Thursday.
Oil prices are fluctuating depending on news and how markets perceive the situation in the Middle East.
Global oil production stands at 95.1 million cubic meters, which is 12.8 million cubic meters below its pre-war level.
Analysts remain divided on the future evolution of oil prices. While there are signs of a slight recovery in traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, supply remains below demand and inventories are declining. Iran has announced the creation of a new authority (‘new Persian Gulf Strait Authority’) responsible for controlling maritime traffic in the strait.