ANALYSE GAZ EN

04/09/2026 - The TTF Calendar 2027 price closed Thursday evening at EUR 52.94/MWh, up 8.08% on last Thursday. The TTF Calendar 2028 price closed Thursday evening higher at EUR 34.76/MWh.
The sharp rise in gas prices this week, which brings the one-month gain to more than 30%, stems from what the market reads as a deterioration of the situation in the Gulf, with a risk of renewed fighting, and from the level of European gas stocks. At 65.85% on 3 September, the European gas storage fill rate is significantly below its year-earlier level (78.29%).
European month-ahead gas prices are now in line with Asian gas prices, which should allow Europe to attract more LNG.

Oil closed Thursday evening at USD 95.52/bbl, up 6.49% on last Thursday.
The resumption of hostilities in the Gulf and the lack of any prospect of a return to negotiations are pushing oil prices higher.
The US administration considers that the partial recovery of traffic through the strait (estimated on 22 August by the US Energy Secretary at 8 million barrels per day, against 20 million before the war) allows it to play for time.
Iran, for its part, is seeking to regain control of the strait. Channels of discussion nevertheless remain, notably via Qatar and Oman, but the US administration appears to want a deal covering both the strait and the nuclear issue, and to be betting on a rapid deterioration in Iran's economic situation.