ANALYSE ELEC EN

04/09/2026 - Calendar 2027 closed Thursday evening at EUR 78.99/MWh in France and EUR 120.68/MWh in Germany, up 14.45% and 6.28% respectively on last Thursday. Calendar 2028 closed Thursday evening higher at EUR 56.21/MWh in France and EUR 94.75/MWh in Germany.
German power prices tracked gas prices. Over one month, however, the rise in German power prices is smaller than that of gas prices (+18.51% for CAL 2027 against 30.03% for CAL TTF 2027). Attacks on two substations in the east and west of the country are an additional source of stress.
The rise in French power prices was particularly strong this week. Over one month, the CAL 2027 price has gained 25.32%. The market is repricing supply-demand risk in France. Q3 2027 thus rose by more than 26% between 27 August and 3 September.

Carbon closed Thursday evening at EUR 82.85/t, up 1.38% on last Thursday.
The rise in gas prices over the past thirty days has had only a very limited impact on the CO2 price.
European gas consumption over the last three months is in line with last year, with higher solar PV output offsetting lower nuclear and hydro generation across much of Europe.
The Dutch institute CPB estimates that the reform of the EU emissions trading scheme proposed by the European Commission would lower the CO2 price by around EUR 12.50/t, a move the market has most likely already priced in, at least partially.