The IEA expects the market to remain congested until the second half of 2026

The International Energy Agency considers that oil supply exceeds demand and that the imbalance, estimated by the IEA at 3.2 million barrels per day, is likely to persist until the end of the second half of 2026. Analysts are not necessarily on the same line as the IEA, and believe that such an imbalance would have led to a much steeper fall in prices than has occurred in recent weeks. However, the market environment remains complicated for producers, and trade tensions between China and the United States are increasing the pressure on prices.