Oil inventories are falling at a record pace

According to the International Energy Agency, global stocks of oil and petroleum products have declined by 4 million barrels per day, equivalent to the combined consumption of Germany and the United Kingdom. Oil production fell by 14.4 million barrels per day in April compared to pre-war levels. Oil exports from the United States increased, particularly diesel exports, which rose by 430,000 barrels per day. The IEA also notes a decline in the consumption of petroleum products, including in developed countries. Consumption in Europe dropped by 140,000 barrels per day, or 1% of European consumption. The IEA is currently assuming that the war in Iran will end by the end of June. Otherwise, oil consumption will need to decrease much further to offset declining production, which would imply prices rising above their current levels.